Political instability is one of the key factors affecting countries’ economic development. In this article, we analyze the relationship between the number of coups and countries’ economic performance to find out how political instability affects GDP and per capita income. Do more coups in the past mean a deeper economic decline? The answer to this question is in the numbers and facts.

Statistically, we cannot say that countries with more coups have smaller economies, because this needs to take into account the size of the population, territory, education level, economic model, resources, level of economic freedoms, etc. For a more representative sample, it is necessary to compare countries with roughly equal opportunities and resources, otherwise, a simple comparison of numbers can lead to erroneous conclusions.

The MIM:AGENCY team analyzed the number of coups in 55 African countries and the corresponding GDP figures. We show them in the table below: 

GDP per capita:

  • In countries with 0 coups, the average GDP per capita is $2,873.
  • In countries with 1 coup, this figure rises to $3,250, but further increases in the number of coups reduce this figure again.
  • For example, in countries with 3 coups, the average GDP per capita is $2,451, while in countries with 5 coups it is only $1,254.
  • In countries with 9 coups, GDP per capita is $732.

At the same time, the number of coups, as we can see, does not directly affect the GDP per capita. For example, Egypt has had 5 coups. However, the country is still economically powerful, thanks to the Suez Canal and other factors, and Botswana, due to its small population, is far ahead of other countries in terms of GDP per capita.

It can also be seen that, on average, the number of coups is higher in countries with a smaller population and a lack of a strong economic base for development (such as Egypt or Algeria), which directly affects the level of economic development in the region. This is not to say that the number of coups directly affects the standard of living and the size of the economy, but it is also undeniable that political instability shapes the economic life of different countries.

Conclusions

Thus, political instability caused by coups d’état has a devastating impact on economic development. Frequent coups undermine trust in governments, create an unstable investment environment, and impede long-term economic planning. However, this does not directly lead to a long-term decline in GDP, lower incomes, and a deterioration in living standards. The situation is influenced by many factors, the analysis of which together allows us to understand the reasons for the deterioration of the economic situation.